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De nut en noodzaak van klimaatrisicomanagement op vastgoed
Vastgoedontwikkeling blijft een interessante investering voor beleggers, maar wordt in toenemende mate blootgesteld aan klimaatrisico’s. Onderzoeken en de praktijk laten steeds vaker de grotere impact van klimaatverandering op de vastgoedsector zien. Gedegen klimaatrisicomanagement zal daarom in de toekomst een belangrijkere rol gaan spelen. Hoe ziet dergelijk risicomanagement eruit, waar ligt de verantwoordelijkheid, welke investeringen vraagt het en wat betekent dit voor het rendement van investeerders?
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Steeds vaker komt het rendement op vastgoedbeleggingen in gevaar door klimaatverandering. Zo leggen natuurrampen en extreme weersomstandigheden de kwetsbaarheid van vastgoed steeds vaker bloot. Desondanks worden er nog volop nieuwe bouw- en investeringsprojecten opgezet op risicovolle en kwetsbare locaties.
Door het wereldwijd toenemende risico op klimaatrampen stijgen de verzekeringspremies en mede als gevolg daarvan de vastgoedprijzen. Daarnaast zijn er ook minder zichtbare klimaatrisico’s, zoals waardevermindering door strengere milieuwetgeving.
Maakt dit beleggen in vastgoed voor de toekomst minder interessant? Niet als er tijdig wordt nagedacht over effectief klimaatrisicomanagement, dat omarmt zal moeten worden als een extra dimensie van gebiedsontwikkeling en vastgoedbeheer.
Om te begrijpen hoe klimaatrisicomanagement kan worden vormgegeven, is het belangrijk om de twee belangrijkste risico’s uit te leggen; fysieke en transitierisico’s.
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Fysieke risico’s
Fysieke risico’s hebben betrekking tot alle schade door natuurrampen als orkanen, overstromingen en bosbranden. Ook de negatieve effecten van langdurige droogte vallen hieronder. In Nederland vormen overstromingen het grootste risico. Zowel een stijgende zeespiegel als zware regenval, kunnen met name huishoudens in kustgebieden en rondom rivieren raken.
Een verhoogd risico op overstromingen kan naast schade aan gebouwen ook nadelig zijn voor de prijsontwikkeling van vastgoedprojecten in een risicovol gebied. Dit effect is bijvoorbeeld goed terug te zien in bepaalde gebieden rond New York. Het onderzoek van Eichholtz, Steiner en Yönder laat zien dat na orkaan Sandy de prijzen van vastgoed daar blijvend zijn gedaald. Hetzelfde prijseffect is zichtbaar in gebieden waar regelmatig bosbranden plaatsvinden, zoals in Californië.
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Beleggers maar ook verzekeraars kijken steeds vaker naar weersmodellen, om op deze manier de kans op overstromingen in specifieke gebieden in kaart te brengen. Hoe groter de kans op klimaatrampen, des te groter het risico op waardevermindering van vastgoed en tegelijkertijd een toenemende kans dat de verzekeringspremies voor panden in deze risicogebieden significant stijgen.
Door klimaatverandering zullen naar verwachting ook in Nederland stormen steeds grilliger worden en sluiten experts orkanen in de toekomst niet uit, evenals hevigere natuurbranden als gevolg van langdurige droogte.
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Transitierisico’s
Het tweede aspect zijn transitierisico’s. Dit risico komt voort uit de overgang naar een CO2-neutrale economie. Strengere wetgeving en milieueisen kunnen direct leiden tot waardevermindering van met name oudere vastgoedobjecten. Een concreet voorbeeld zijn de geïntroduceerde energielabels, waarbij alle kantoorgebouwen in Nederland vanaf 2023 voorzien moeten zijn van tenminste energielabel C. Uit gegevens van de Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland (RVO) komt naar voren dat 34% van de kantoren momenteel over een energielabel C of beter beschikt. Vervolgens wil de Nederlandse regering dat per 1 januari 2030 voor kantoorgebouwen in eigen land energielabel A de standaard wordt.
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Invalshoeken voor klimaatrisicomanagement
Het grootste vraagstuk van klimaatrisicomanagement is: Hoe kan de vastgoedsector de risico’s op schade en waardevermindering als gevolg van klimaatverandering zoveel mogelijk beperken?
Om op deze vraag een antwoord te formuleren kan klimaatrisicomanagement vanuit hoofdzakelijk drie invalshoeken worden benaderd:
- Definiëring en waardering – Hoe worden klimaatrisico’s in kaart gebracht en hoe groot is de noodzaak voor management hiervan?
- Verantwoordelijkheid – Wie is wanneer verantwoordelijk voor het managen van klimaatrisico’s en hoe zijn de belangen verdeeld?
- Kosten- en batenanalyse – Wat kosten investeringen voor klimaatrisicomanagement en hoe weerhoudt zich dit tot het (toekomstig) rendement voor vastgoedbeleggers?
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Definiëring en waardering
Het in kaart brengen van klimaatrisico’s is niet alleen belangrijk om de aard van de risico’s te bepalen, maar ook om locatiegerichte risico’s helder voor ogen te krijgen. Vastgoedobjecten aan de kust kunnen met andere risico’s te maken krijgen dan vastgoedobjecten in het binnenland. En in hoeverre is een ouder pand kwetsbaar voor waardevermindering door transitierisico’s?
Een risicoanalyse kan vervolgens bepalen hoe groot de noodzaak is om hierop te anticiperen. Is er bijvoorbeeld sprake van een eenmalige uitzonderlijke situatie of is er sprake van een vaste klimaattendens?
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Verantwoordelijkheid
Belangrijk is om bij vastgoed vast te stellen wie er verantwoordelijk is voor het managen van de klimaatrisico’s. Op deze manier wordt er duidelijkheid gecreëerd en onnodige discussies naderhand voorkomen.
Door iemand hiervoor aan te wijzen kan aan diegene weer op andere niveaus verantwoording worden afgelegd. Zo heeft een (externe) accountant een belangrijke verantwoordelijkheid in het transparant maken van de status van een organisatie op het gebied van materiële en financiële risico’s van het vastgoed.
Verder is het cruciaal om de belangen goed te verdelen en ervoor te zorgen dat de juiste mensen over voldoende kennis beschikken. Zo moet een Raad van Toezicht of Commissarissen zich bewust zijn van de verantwoordelijkheid die zij draagt. De RvT of RvC zou zichzelf daarbij regelmatig moeten toetsen of zij over voldoende kennis en ervaring beschikt op het gebied van wet- en regelgeving rondom klimaatverandering. Op deze manier kan er gewerkt worden richting de langetermijn doelstellingen van de organisatie.
[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][fusion_builder_column type=”1_1″ align_self=”auto” content_layout=”column” align_content=”flex-start” content_wrap=”wrap” spacing=”” center_content=”no” link=”” target=”_self” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” type_medium=”” type_small=”” order_medium=”0″ order_small=”0″ dimension_spacing_medium=”” dimension_spacing_small=”” dimension_spacing=”” dimension_margin_medium=”” dimension_margin_small=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_medium=”” padding_small=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” hover_type=”none” border_sizes=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” border_radius=”” box_shadow=”no” dimension_box_shadow=”” box_shadow_blur=”0″ box_shadow_spread=”0″ box_shadow_color=”” box_shadow_style=”” background_type=”single” gradient_start_color=”” gradient_end_color=”” gradient_start_position=”0″ gradient_end_position=”100″ gradient_type=”linear” radial_direction=”center center” linear_angle=”180″ background_color=”” background_image=”” background_image_id=”” background_position=”left top” background_repeat=”no-repeat” background_blend_mode=”none” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” filter_type=”regular” filter_hue=”0″ filter_saturation=”100″ filter_brightness=”100″ filter_contrast=”100″ filter_invert=”0″ filter_sepia=”0″ filter_opacity=”100″ filter_blur=”0″ filter_hue_hover=”0″ filter_saturation_hover=”100″ filter_brightness_hover=”100″ filter_contrast_hover=”100″ filter_invert_hover=”0″ filter_sepia_hover=”0″ filter_opacity_hover=”100″ filter_blur_hover=”0″ last=”no” border_position=”all”][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”default” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” content_alignment_medium=”” content_alignment_small=”” content_alignment=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” font_size=”” fusion_font_family_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_text_font=”” line_height=”” letter_spacing=”” text_color=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=””]Beleggers maar ook verzekeraars kijken steeds vaker naar weersmodellen, om op deze manier de kans op overstromingen in specifieke gebieden in kaart te brengen. Hoe groter de kans op klimaatrampen, des te groter het risico op waardevermindering van vastgoed en tegelijkertijd een toenemende kans dat de verzekeringspremies voor panden in deze risicogebieden significant stijgen.
Door klimaatverandering zullen naar verwachting ook in Nederland stormen steeds grilliger worden en sluiten experts orkanen in de toekomst niet uit, evenals hevigere natuurbranden als gevolg van langdurige droogte.[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container][fusion_builder_container hundred_percent=”no” hundred_percent_height=”no” hundred_percent_height_scroll=”no” hundred_percent_height_center_content=”yes” equal_height_columns=”no” menu_anchor=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” status=”published” publish_date=”” class=”” id=”” background_color=”” background_image=”” background_position=”center center” background_repeat=”no-repeat” fade=”no” background_parallax=”none” enable_mobile=”no” parallax_speed=”0.3″ video_mp4=”” video_webm=”” video_ogv=”” video_url=”” video_aspect_ratio=”16:9″ video_loop=”yes” video_mute=”yes” video_preview_image=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” type=”flex”][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=”1_2″ layout=”1_1″ spacing=”” center_content=”no” link=”” target=”_self” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” background_color=”” background_image=”” background_image_id=”” background_position=”left top” background_repeat=”no-repeat” hover_type=”none” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” border_position=”all” border_radius=”” box_shadow=”no” dimension_box_shadow=”” box_shadow_blur=”0″ box_shadow_spread=”0″ box_shadow_color=”” box_shadow_style=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” last=”false” border_sizes_top=”0″ border_sizes_bottom=”0″ border_sizes_left=”0″ border_sizes_right=”0″ first=”true” spacing_right=””][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”default” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” content_alignment_medium=”” content_alignment_small=”” content_alignment=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” font_size=”” fusion_font_family_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_text_font=”” line_height=”” letter_spacing=”” text_color=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=””]
Kosten- en batenanalyse
Klimaatverandering leidt tot nieuwe wet- en regelgeving. Denk bijvoorbeeld aan de eerdergenoemde energielabels voor kantoorgebouwen. Het Economisch Instituut voor de Bouw (EIB) en Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland (ECN) stellen op basis van eigen onderzoek dat de kosten om een kantoorgebouw met een F-label of hoger te verbeteren naar een C-label ongeveer 15 euro per vierkante meter kost. Voor een gebouw met energielabel G bedragen de kosten voor een upgrade naar C tussen de 39 en 71 euro per vierkante meter.
Verder dienen organisaties te kijken naar de kosten die voortvloeien uit de klimaatverandering. Stel dat bepaald vastgoed afhankelijk is van een lokaal energienetwerk, dan is het raadzaam om de kosten te berekenen voor generatoren als back-up en deze af te zetten tegen de kosten wanneer de stroom uitvalt door een storm of overstroming.
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animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=””]De investeringen in klimaatverandering leiden vaak niet direct tot extra rendement op het vastgoed, waardoor beleggers minder geneigd zullen zijn om hierin te investeren. Belangrijk is daarom ook te kijken naar de terugverdientijd, die mede afhankelijk is van de huidige staat van een vastgoedobject. De EIB en ECN ramen de terugverdientijd voor een verbetering naar energielabel C tussen de 3,5 en 6 jaar, terwijl een upgrade van energielabel B naar A tot wel 13,5 jaar kan duren.[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]