Verwachtingen Rendement Zorgvastgoed

[fusion_builder_container type=”flex” hundred_percent=”no” hundred_percent_height=”no” min_height=”” hundred_percent_height_scroll=”no” align_content=”stretch” flex_align_items=”flex-start” flex_justify_content=”flex-start” flex_column_spacing=”” hundred_percent_height_center_content=”yes” equal_height_columns=”no” container_tag=”div” menu_anchor=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” status=”published” publish_date=”” class=”” id=”” link_color=”” link_hover_color=”” border_sizes_top=”” border_sizes_right=”” border_sizes_bottom=”” border_sizes_left=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” margin_top_medium=”” margin_bottom_medium=”” margin_top_small=”” margin_bottom_small=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_top_medium=”” padding_right_medium=”” padding_bottom_medium=”” padding_left_medium=”” padding_top_small=”” padding_right_small=”” padding_bottom_small=”” padding_left_small=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” box_shadow=”no” box_shadow_vertical=”” box_shadow_horizontal=”” box_shadow_blur=”0″ box_shadow_spread=”0″ box_shadow_color=”” box_shadow_style=”” z_index=”” overflow=”” gradient_start_color=”” gradient_end_color=”” gradient_start_position=”0″ gradient_end_position=”100″ gradient_type=”linear” radial_direction=”center center” linear_angle=”180″ background_color=”” background_image=”” background_position=”center center” background_repeat=”no-repeat” fade=”no” background_parallax=”none” enable_mobile=”no” parallax_speed=”0.3″ background_blend_mode=”none” video_mp4=”” video_webm=”” video_ogv=”” video_url=”” video_aspect_ratio=”16:9″ video_loop=”yes” video_mute=”yes” video_preview_image=”” absolute=”off” absolute_devices=”small,medium,large” sticky=”off” sticky_devices=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_background_color=”” sticky_height=”” sticky_offset=”” sticky_transition_offset=”0″ scroll_offset=”0″ animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” filter_hue=”0″ filter_saturation=”100″ filter_brightness=”100″ filter_contrast=”100″ filter_invert=”0″ filter_sepia=”0″ filter_opacity=”100″ filter_blur=”0″ filter_hue_hover=”0″ filter_saturation_hover=”100″ filter_brightness_hover=”100″ filter_contrast_hover=”100″ filter_invert_hover=”0″ filter_sepia_hover=”0″ filter_opacity_hover=”100″ filter_blur_hover=”0″][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=”1_2″ layout=”1_2″ align_self=”auto” content_layout=”column” align_content=”flex-start” content_wrap=”wrap” spacing=”” center_content=”no” link=”” target=”_self” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” type_medium=”” type_small=”” order_medium=”0″ order_small=”0″ dimension_spacing_medium=”” dimension_spacing_small=”” dimension_spacing=”” dimension_margin_medium=”” dimension_margin_small=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_medium=”” padding_small=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” hover_type=”none” border_sizes=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” border_radius=”” box_shadow=”no” dimension_box_shadow=”” box_shadow_blur=”0″ box_shadow_spread=”0″ box_shadow_color=”” box_shadow_style=”” background_type=”single” gradient_start_color=”” gradient_end_color=”” gradient_start_position=”0″ gradient_end_position=”100″ gradient_type=”linear” radial_direction=”center center” linear_angle=”180″ background_color=”” background_image=”” background_image_id=”” background_position=”left top” background_repeat=”no-repeat” background_blend_mode=”none” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” filter_type=”regular” filter_hue=”0″ filter_saturation=”100″ filter_brightness=”100″ filter_contrast=”100″ filter_invert=”0″ filter_sepia=”0″ filter_opacity=”100″ filter_blur=”0″ filter_hue_hover=”0″ filter_saturation_hover=”100″ filter_brightness_hover=”100″ filter_contrast_hover=”100″ filter_invert_hover=”0″ filter_sepia_hover=”0″ filter_opacity_hover=”100″ filter_blur_hover=”0″ last=”false” border_position=”all” first=”true” spacing_right=””][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”default” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” content_alignment_medium=”” content_alignment_small=”” content_alignment=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” font_size=”” fusion_font_family_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_text_font=”” line_height=”” letter_spacing=”” text_color=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=””]De coronacrisis krijgt voorlopig nog geen vat op de zorgvastgoedmarkt en het beleggingssegment lijkt ook voor de komende jaren aantrekkelijk te blijven. De investeringscyclus bevindt zich daarbij in een opwaartse ontwikkeling en de verwachting is dat de huurprijzen zich veelal conform de inflatie zullen blijven ontwikkelen. De redenen hiervoor zijn de toenemende vergrijzing en aanhoudend zorgvastgoedtekort.[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][fusion_builder_column type=”1_2″ layout=”1_2″ align_self=”auto” content_layout=”column” align_content=”flex-start” content_wrap=”wrap” spacing=”” center_content=”no” link=”” target=”_self” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” type_medium=”” type_small=”” order_medium=”0″ order_small=”0″ dimension_spacing_medium=”” dimension_spacing_small=”” dimension_spacing=”” dimension_margin_medium=”” dimension_margin_small=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_medium=”” padding_small=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” hover_type=”none” border_sizes=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” border_radius=”” box_shadow=”no” dimension_box_shadow=”” box_shadow_blur=”0″ box_shadow_spread=”0″ box_shadow_color=”” box_shadow_style=”” background_type=”single” gradient_start_color=”” gradient_end_color=”” gradient_start_position=”0″ gradient_end_position=”100″ gradient_type=”linear” radial_direction=”center center” linear_angle=”180″ background_color=”” background_image=”” background_image_id=”” background_position=”left top” background_repeat=”no-repeat” background_blend_mode=”none” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” filter_type=”regular” filter_hue=”0″ filter_saturation=”100″ filter_brightness=”100″ filter_contrast=”100″ filter_invert=”0″ filter_sepia=”0″ filter_opacity=”100″ filter_blur=”0″ filter_hue_hover=”0″ filter_saturation_hover=”100″ filter_brightness_hover=”100″ filter_contrast_hover=”100″ filter_invert_hover=”0″ filter_sepia_hover=”0″ filter_opacity_hover=”100″ filter_blur_hover=”0″ last=”true” border_position=”all” first=”false”][fusion_imageframe image_id=”1142|full” max_width=”” sticky_max_width=”” style_type=”” blur=”” stylecolor=”” hover_type=”liftup” bordersize=”2″ bordercolor=”” borderradius=”10px” align_medium=”none” align_small=”none” align=”center” margin_top=”” margin_right=”” margin_bottom=”” margin_left=”” lightbox=”no” gallery_id=”” lightbox_image=”” lightbox_image_id=”” alt=”” link=”” linktarget=”_self” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” filter_hue=”0″ filter_saturation=”100″ filter_brightness=”100″ filter_contrast=”100″ filter_invert=”0″ filter_sepia=”0″ filter_opacity=”100″ filter_blur=”0″ filter_hue_hover=”0″ filter_saturation_hover=”100″ filter_brightness_hover=”100″ filter_contrast_hover=”100″ filter_invert_hover=”0″ filter_sepia_hover=”0″ filter_opacity_hover=”100″ filter_blur_hover=”0″]https://fundstarrealestate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/verwa.jpg[/fusion_imageframe][/fusion_builder_column][fusion_builder_column type=”1_1″ layout=”1_1″ spacing=”” center_content=”no” link=”” target=”_self” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” background_color=”” background_image=”” background_image_id=”” background_position=”left top” background_repeat=”no-repeat” hover_type=”none” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” border_position=”all” border_radius=”” box_shadow=”no” dimension_box_shadow=”” box_shadow_blur=”0″ box_shadow_spread=”0″ box_shadow_color=”” box_shadow_style=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” last=”true” border_sizes_top=”0″ border_sizes_bottom=”0″ border_sizes_left=”0″ border_sizes_right=”0″ first=”true”][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”default” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” content_alignment_medium=”” content_alignment_small=”” content_alignment=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” font_size=”” fusion_font_family_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_text_font=”” line_height=”” letter_spacing=”” text_color=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=””]De commerciële vastgoedmarkt heeft zwaar te lijden onder de coronacrisis. Op basis van cijfers van de Amerikaanse bank Wells Fargo over recente taxaties van gebundelde hypotheekobligaties, stelt de Financial Times dat commercieel vastgoed in de Verenigde Staten minstens een kwart van zijn waarde heeft verloren. Vooral hotelvastgoedeigenaren zien de waarde van hun portefeuille in rap tempo dalen.

Dichterbij huis zag winkelvastgoedgigant Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield door de lockdown een groot deel van de huurinkomsten wegvallen. Inmiddels is dit weer enigszins hersteld en ontving URW in augustus 70 procent van de huur.

Beursgenoteerde zorgvastgoedinvesteerders lijken vooralsnog de dans te ontspringen. Het Belgische Aedifica, dat meer dan 450 zorgvastgoedlocaties verspreid over zes landen bezit, zag tussen 30 juni 2019 en 30 juni 2020 de huurinkomsten met 38 procent stijgen tot 163 miljoen euro, terwijl de EPRA-winst over dezelfde periode met 39 procent toenam tot 100 miljoen euro. Het eveneens Belgische Care Property Invest zag over het eerste halfjaar van dit jaar de reële waarde van de vastgoedportefeuille met 24 procent toenemen tot 796 miljoen euro.

De zorgvastgoedinvesteerders zien ook dat de coronacrisis zorgt voor onzekerheid, maar rekenen erop dat dat de groei voorlopig doorzet. Zo verhoogde Care Property Invest zijn verwachting voor de ERPA-winst per aandeel over heel 2020 van 0,93 euro per aandeel naar 0,96 euro per aandeel.[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container][fusion_builder_container type=”flex” hundred_percent=”no” hundred_percent_height=”no” min_height=”” hundred_percent_height_scroll=”no” align_content=”stretch” flex_align_items=”flex-start” flex_justify_content=”flex-start” flex_column_spacing=”” hundred_percent_height_center_content=”yes” equal_height_columns=”no” container_tag=”div” menu_anchor=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” status=”published” publish_date=”” class=”” id=”” link_color=”” link_hover_color=”” border_sizes_top=”” border_sizes_right=”” border_sizes_bottom=”” border_sizes_left=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” margin_top_medium=”” margin_bottom_medium=”” margin_top_small=”” margin_bottom_small=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_top_medium=”” padding_right_medium=”” padding_bottom_medium=”” padding_left_medium=”” padding_top_small=”” padding_right_small=”” padding_bottom_small=”” padding_left_small=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” box_shadow=”no” box_shadow_vertical=”” box_shadow_horizontal=”” box_shadow_blur=”0″ box_shadow_spread=”0″ box_shadow_color=”” box_shadow_style=”” z_index=”” overflow=”” gradient_start_color=”” gradient_end_color=”” gradient_start_position=”0″ gradient_end_position=”100″ gradient_type=”linear” radial_direction=”center center” linear_angle=”180″ background_color=”” background_image=”” background_position=”center center” background_repeat=”no-repeat” fade=”no” background_parallax=”none” enable_mobile=”no” parallax_speed=”0.3″ background_blend_mode=”none” video_mp4=”” video_webm=”” video_ogv=”” video_url=”” video_aspect_ratio=”16:9″ video_loop=”yes” video_mute=”yes” video_preview_image=”” absolute=”off” absolute_devices=”small,medium,large” sticky=”off” sticky_devices=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_background_color=”” sticky_height=”” sticky_offset=”” sticky_transition_offset=”0″ scroll_offset=”0″ animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” filter_hue=”0″ filter_saturation=”100″ filter_brightness=”100″ filter_contrast=”100″ filter_invert=”0″ filter_sepia=”0″ filter_opacity=”100″ filter_blur=”0″ filter_hue_hover=”0″ filter_saturation_hover=”100″ filter_brightness_hover=”100″ filter_contrast_hover=”100″ filter_invert_hover=”0″ filter_sepia_hover=”0″ filter_opacity_hover=”100″ filter_blur_hover=”0″][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=”1_2″ layout=”1_2″ align_self=”auto” content_layout=”column” align_content=”flex-start” content_wrap=”wrap” spacing=”” center_content=”no” link=”” target=”_self” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” type_medium=”” type_small=”” order_medium=”0″ order_small=”0″ dimension_spacing_medium=”” dimension_spacing_small=”” dimension_spacing=”” dimension_margin_medium=”” dimension_margin_small=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_medium=”” padding_small=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” hover_type=”none” border_sizes=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” border_radius=”” box_shadow=”no” dimension_box_shadow=”” box_shadow_blur=”0″ box_shadow_spread=”0″ box_shadow_color=”” box_shadow_style=”” background_type=”single” gradient_start_color=”” gradient_end_color=”” gradient_start_position=”0″ gradient_end_position=”100″ gradient_type=”linear” radial_direction=”center center” linear_angle=”180″ background_color=”” background_image=”” background_image_id=”” background_position=”left top” background_repeat=”no-repeat” background_blend_mode=”none” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” filter_type=”regular” filter_hue=”0″ filter_saturation=”100″ filter_brightness=”100″ filter_contrast=”100″ filter_invert=”0″ filter_sepia=”0″ filter_opacity=”100″ filter_blur=”0″ filter_hue_hover=”0″ filter_saturation_hover=”100″ filter_brightness_hover=”100″ filter_contrast_hover=”100″ filter_invert_hover=”0″ filter_sepia_hover=”0″ filter_opacity_hover=”100″ filter_blur_hover=”0″ last=”false” border_position=”all” first=”true” spacing_right=””][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”default” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” content_alignment_medium=”” content_alignment_small=”” content_alignment=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” font_size=”” fusion_font_family_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_text_font=”” line_height=”” letter_spacing=”” text_color=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=””]

Vastgoedtekort

Een van de belangrijkste redenen voor het optimisme onder zorgvastgoedinvesteerders is dat de vergrijzing wereldwijd in volle gang is. Consultants van SiRM stellen dat in 2017 in Nederland ongeveer 18 procent van de bevolking ouder was dan 65, 14 procent tussen de 65-80 jaar en 4 procent ouder dan 80 jaar was. Daarmee zit Nederland net onder het Europees gemiddelde van 19 procent. De verwachting is dat er in de komende tien jaar vooral meer Nederlanders bijkomen in de leeftijdscategorieën 75-80 en 80-85.

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Verder biedt intramuraal zorgvastgoed nog volop groeipotentie en dan met name vastgoed dat gericht is op levensloopbestendige of reguliere woningen op aantrekkelijke locaties.

Gezondheidscentra, klinieken en ZBC’s hebben in 2019 het rendement zien toenemen en zijn daarmee opgeschoven in de cyclus. Voor het meest courante vastgoed in deze categorie is volgens analisten nog beperkte ruimte voor groei.

De overige zorgvastgoedtypen zijn vooral interessant voor beleggers die graag willen inspelen op zorgproducten met een zogenoemd ‘cure-stempel’. Daarbij verdwijnen op langere termijn voor het meeste zorgvastgoed mogelijk de nu nog aanwezige extra risicopremies.

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Opwaartse ontwikkeling

Het lijkt erop dat de zorgsector nagenoeg conjunctuurongevoelig is. De zorgvastgoedmarkt bevindt zich net als voorgaande jaren overwegend in een opwaartse ontwikkeling van de investeringscyclus. Mede daarom is de verwachting dat zorgvastgoed ook in de toekomst een solide beleggingssegment blijft door ruimte voor yielddalingen, inflatievolgende huren en weinig leegstand.

Met name levensloopbestendige woningen hebben momenteel veelal lage aanvangsrendementen en boveninflatoire huurontwikkeling. Verwacht wordt dat de rendementen en de huren de komende jaren blijven stijgen.

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In addition, intramural healthcare real estate still offers plenty of growth potential, especially real estate aimed at life-course-proof or regular homes in attractive locations.

Health centers, clinics and independent treatment centers have seen their returns increase in 2019 and have thus moved up the cycle. According to analysts, there is still limited room for growth for the most current real estate in this category.

The other healthcare real estate types are particularly interesting for investors who would like to capitalize on healthcare products with a so-called ‘cure stamp’. In the longer term, the extra risk premiums that are still present may disappear for most healthcare real estate.

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Druk op aanvangsrendement

Als gevolg van de toenemende belangstelling in zorgvastgoed en daarnaast ook de over het algemeen hoge beleggingsdruk, blijft de druk op aanvangsrendementen aanwezig en in bijna alle segmenten zichtbaar. Het ‘waterbedeffect’ van de sterk geprijsde steden richting de omliggende gemeenten is daarbij goed zichtbaar.

Voor levensloopbestendige woningen blijven de aanvangsrendementen de komende jaren naar verwachting stabiel. In gemeenten waar het waterbedeffect duidelijk zichtbaar is zal de yieldverschuiving beperkt zijn.

Voor intramurale zorgwoningen wordt gerekend op een daling van de aanvangsrendementen. Dit komt naast de toegenomen belangstelling in dit type zorgvastgoed ook door de toenemende gelijkenis met het reguliere woonproduct. 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Markthuur verwachtingen

Geïndexeerde huurcontracten met zorginstellingen en zorgverleners vormen veelal de basis van de huurprijsontwikkeling van bestaand zorgvastgoed. Wanneer bij aanvang van het huurcontract reële huurprijzen worden gerekend, is de verwachting dat markthuurprijzen zich conform de inflatie zullen blijven ontwikkelen. Zorginstellingen moeten de huurprijsbetalingen normaliter vanuit de integrale tarieven voldoen.

Hoewel de zorgkosten onder druk staan, wordt verwacht dat courant zorgvastgoed bijdraagt aan kwalitatief goede en efficiënte zorgverlening en daarmee de huurprijsniveaus op peil kunnen blijven. Voor levensloopbestendige woningen en particuliere woonzorgwoningen worden de huurniveaus door de markt bepaald, waardoor de geografische ligging en fysieke eigenschappen van de woning een rol spelen in de totstandkoming van het huurniveau.

Verwacht wordt dat als gevolg van de toekomstige schaarste de markthuurstijgingen boven inflatie zullen liggen. Voor levensloopbestendige woningen en intramuraal vastgoed zal de ontwikkeling van de markthuur in de periode 2020-2022 naar verwachting hoger liggen dan de inflatie.[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

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